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Sam Altman:Reflections

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2025-01-06 / 0 评论 / 0 点赞 / 2 阅读 / 0 字

The second birthday of ChatGPT was only a little over a month ago, and now we have transitioned into the next paradigm of models that can do complex reasoning. New years get people in a reflective mood, and I wanted to share some personal thoughts about how it has gone so far, and some of the things I’ve learned along the way.ChatGPT 的第二个生日才一个多月前,现在我们已经过渡到下一个可以进行复杂推理的模型范式。新的一年让人们处于反思的心情中,我想分享一些关于到目前为止的进展的个人想法,以及我一路上学到的一些东西。

As we get closer to AGI, it feels like an important time to look at the progress of our company. There is still so much to understand, still so much we don’t know, and it’s still so early. But we know a lot more than we did when we started.随着我们越来越接近 AGI,现在是审视我们公司进展的重要时刻。还有很多东西需要理解,还有很多我们不知道,而且现在还为时过早。但我们知道的比刚开始时要多得多。

We started OpenAI almost nine years ago because we believed that AGI was possible, and that it could be the most impactful technology in human history. We wanted to figure out how to build it and make it broadly beneficial; we were excited to try to make our mark on history. Our ambitions were extraordinarily high and so was our belief that the work might benefit society in an equally extraordinary way.我们在大约 9 年前创立了 OpenAI,因为我们相信 AGI 是可能的,并且它可能是人类历史上最具影响力的技术。我们想弄清楚如何构建它并使其广泛受益;我们很高兴尝试在历史上留下我们的印记。我们的雄心壮志非常高,我们相信这项工作可能会以同样非凡的方式造福社会。

At the time, very few people cared, and if they did, it was mostly because they thought we had no chance of success.当时,很少有人关心,即使他们关心,那主要是因为他们认为我们没有成功的机会。

In 2022, OpenAI was a quiet research lab working on something temporarily called “Chat With GPT-3.5”. (We are much better at research than we are at naming things.) We had been watching people use the playground feature of our API and knew that developers were really enjoying talking to the model. We thought building a demo around that experience would show people something important about the future and help us make our models better and safer.2022 年,OpenAI 是一个安静的研究实验室,致力于开发临时称为“与 GPT-3.5 聊天”的东西。(我们研究比命名要好得多。我们一直在观察人们使用我们的 API 的 Playground 功能,并且知道开发人员真的很喜欢与模型交谈。我们认为,围绕这些体验构建一个演示会向人们展示关于未来的重要信息,并帮助我们使模型更好、更安全。

We ended up mercifully calling it ChatGPT instead, and launched it on November 30th of 2022.我们最终仁慈地称它为 ChatGPT,并于 2022 年 11 月 30 日推出。

We always knew, abstractly, that at some point we would hit a tipping point and the AI revolution would get kicked off. But we didn’t know what the moment would be. To our surprise, it turned out to be this.我们总是抽象地知道,在某个时刻,我们会达到一个转折点,AI 革命就会掀开序幕。但我们不知道那一刻会是什么。令我们惊讶的是,结果是这样的。

The launch of ChatGPT kicked off a growth curve like nothing we have ever seen—in our company, our industry, and the world broadly. We are finally seeing some of the massive upside we have always hoped for from AI, and we can see how much more will come soon.ChatGPT 的推出开启了我们从未见过的增长曲线——在我们公司、我们的行业和全世界。我们终于看到了我们一直希望从 AI 中获得的一些巨大优势,而且我们可以看到很快就会有更多的好处。


It hasn’t been easy. The road hasn’t been smooth and the right choices haven’t been obvious.这并不容易。道路并不平坦,正确的选择也不明显。

In the last two years, we had to build an entire company, almost from scratch, around this new technology. There is no way to train people for this except by doing it, and when the technology category is completely new, there is no one at all who can tell you exactly how it should be done.在过去的两年里,我们不得不围绕这项新技术几乎从零开始建立一家完整的公司。除了亲身实践之外,没有办法培训人们,而且当技术类别是全新的时,根本没有人可以告诉你应该如何做到这一点。

Building up a company at such high velocity with so little training is a messy process. It’s often two steps forward, one step back (and sometimes, one step forward and two steps back). Mistakes get corrected as you go along, but there aren’t really any handbooks or guideposts when you’re doing original work. Moving at speed in uncharted waters is an incredible experience, but it is also immensely stressful for all the players. Conflicts and misunderstanding abound.以如此少的培训以如此快的速度建立一家公司是一个混乱的过程。通常是前进两步,后退一步(有时,前进一步,后退两步)。随着你的进步,错误会得到纠正,但当你做原创工作时,实际上没有任何手册或指南。在未知的水域中快速移动是一种令人难以置信的体验,但对所有玩家来说也都带来了巨大的压力。冲突和误解比比皆是。

These years have been the most rewarding, fun, best, interesting, exhausting, stressful, and—particularly for the last two—unpleasant years of my life so far. The overwhelming feeling is gratitude; I know that someday I’ll be retired at our ranch watching the plants grow, a little bored, and will think back at how cool it was that I got to do the work I dreamed of since I was a little kid. I try to remember that on any given Friday, when seven things go badly wrong by 1 pm.这些年是我生命中最有意义、最有趣、最美好、最有趣、最疲惫、最紧张的,尤其是最近两年——不愉快的几年。压倒性的感觉是感激;我知道总有一天我会退休后在我们的牧场看着植物生长,有点无聊,回想起我能做我从小就梦想的工作是多么酷。我试着记住,在任何一个星期五,到下午 1 点就有 7 件事出了大问题。


A little over a year ago, on one particular Friday, the main thing that had gone wrong that day was that I got fired by surprise on a video call, and then right after we hung up the board published a blog post about it. I was in a hotel room in Las Vegas. It felt, to a degree that is almost impossible to explain, like a dream gone wrong.一年多以前,在某个特定的星期五,那天出了什么大问题,就是我在一次视频通话中被意外解雇了,然后就在我们挂断电话后,董事会发表了一篇关于这件事的博文。我当时在拉斯维加斯的一家酒店房间里。感觉就像一场梦出了差错,程度几乎无法解释。

Getting fired in public with no warning kicked off a really crazy few hours, and a pretty crazy few days. The “fog of war” was the strangest part. None of us were able to get satisfactory answers about what had happened, or why. 在没有警告的情况下在公共场合被解雇,这开始了非常疯狂的几个小时,也是相当疯狂的几天。“战争迷雾”是最奇怪的部分。我们谁都无法得到关于发生了什么或为什么的令人满意的答案。

The whole event was, in my opinion, a big failure of governance by well-meaning people, myself included. Looking back, I certainly wish I had done things differently, and I’d like to believe I’m a better, more thoughtful leader today than I was a year ago.在我看来,整个事件是包括我自己在内的好心人治理的重大失败。回想起来,我当然希望我当时的做法不同,我愿意相信,与一年前相比,我今天是一个更好、更有思想的领导者。

I also learned the importance of a board with diverse viewpoints and broad experience in managing a complex set of challenges. Good governance requires a lot of trust and credibility. I appreciate the way so many people worked together to build a stronger system of governance for OpenAI that enables us to pursue our mission of ensuring that AGI benefits all of humanity.我还了解到拥有不同观点和丰富经验的董事会在管理一系列复杂挑战方面的重要性。良好的治理需要大量的信任和信誉。我很感激这么多人共同努力为 OpenAI 构建更强大的治理系统,这使我们能够追求确保 AGI 造福全人类的使命。

My biggest takeaway is how much I have to be thankful for and how many people I owe gratitude towards: to everyone who works at OpenAI and has chosen to spend their time and effort going after this dream, to friends who helped us get through the crisis moments, to our partners and customers who supported us and entrusted us to enable their success, and to the people in my life who showed me how much they cared. [1]我最大的收获是我必须感恩多少,以及我欠多少人:感谢在 OpenAI 工作并选择花费时间和精力追求这个梦想的每个人,感谢帮助我们度过危机时刻的朋友,感谢支持我们并委托我们实现成功, 以及我生命中向我展示他们有多关心的人。[1]

We all got back to the work in a more cohesive and positive way and I’m very proud of our focus since then. We have done what is easily some of our best research ever. We grew from about 100 million weekly active users to more than 300 million. Most of all, we have continued to put technology out into the world that people genuinely seem to love and that solves real problems.我们都以更有凝聚力和积极的方式回到工作中,我为从那时起我们的专注感到非常自豪。我们完成了有史以来最好的研究。我们从每周约 1 亿活跃用户增长到超过 3 亿。最重要的是,我们继续向世界推出人们似乎真正喜欢并解决实际问题的技术。


Nine years ago, we really had no idea what we were eventually going to become; even now, we only sort of know. AI development has taken many twists and turns and we expect more in the future.九年前,我们真的不知道我们最终会成为什么;即使是现在,我们也只是有点知道。AI 开发经历了许多曲折,我们期待未来会有更多。

Some of the twists have been joyful; some have been hard. It’s been fun watching a steady stream of research miracles occur, and a lot of naysayers have become true believers. We’ve also seen some colleagues split off and become competitors. Teams tend to turn over as they scale, and OpenAI scales really fast. I think some of this is unavoidable—startups usually see a lot of turnover at each new major level of scale, and at OpenAI numbers go up by orders of magnitude every few months. The last two years have been like a decade at a normal company. When any company grows and evolves so fast, interests naturally diverge. And when any company in an important industry is in the lead, lots of people attack it for all sorts of reasons, especially when they are trying to compete with it.有些曲折是令人愉快的;有些很艰难。看着源源不断的研究奇迹发生,很多反对者都成为了真正的信徒,这很有趣。我们还看到一些同事分道扬镳,成为竞争对手。团队往往会随着规模的扩大而更替,而 OpenAI 的规模非常快。我认为其中一些是不可避免的——初创公司通常会在每个新的主要规模层面上看到大量的人员流动,而在 OpenAI,每隔几个月就会增加几个数量级。过去两年就像一家普通公司的十年。当任何公司发展如此迅速时,利益自然会分化。当一个重要行业中的任何公司处于领先地位时,很多人会出于各种原因攻击它,尤其是当他们试图与之竞争时。

Our vision won’t change; our tactics will continue to evolve. For example, when we started we had no idea we would have to build a product company; we thought we were just going to do great research. We also had no idea we would need such a crazy amount of capital. There are new things we have to go build now that we didn’t understand a few years ago, and there will be new things in the future we can barely imagine now. 我们的愿景不会改变;我们的策略将继续发展。例如,当我们开始时,我们不知道我们必须建立一家产品公司;我们以为我们只是要做伟大的研究。我们也不知道我们需要如此大量的资金。我们现在必须去构建几年前还不理解的新事物,未来还会有我们现在几乎无法想象的新事物。

We are proud of our track-record on research and deployment so far, and are committed to continuing to advance our thinking on safety and benefits sharing. We continue to believe that the best way to make an AI system safe is by iteratively and gradually releasing it into the world, giving society time to adapt and co-evolve with the technology, learning from experience, and continuing to make the technology safer. We believe in the importance of being world leaders on safety and alignment research, and in guiding that research with feedback from real world applications.我们为迄今为止在研究和部署方面的记录感到自豪,并致力于继续推进我们在安全和利益共享方面的思考。我们仍然相信,确保 AI 系统安全的最佳方法是迭代并逐步将其发布到世界上,让社会有时间适应技术并与技术共同发展,从经验中学习,并继续使技术更安全。我们相信成为安全和对齐研究的世界领导者的重要性,并利用来自实际应用的反馈来指导该研究。

We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.我们现在有信心,我们知道如何按照我们传统理解的方式构建 AGI。我们相信,到 2025 年,我们可能会看到第一批 AI 代理“加入劳动力市场”,并实质性地改变公司的产出。我们仍然相信,以迭代方式将出色的工具交到人们手中会带来出色的、广泛分布的结果。

We are beginning to turn our aim beyond that, to superintelligence in the true sense of the word. We love our current products, but we are here for the glorious future. With superintelligence, we can do anything else. Superintelligent tools could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation well beyond what we are capable of doing on our own, and in turn massively increase abundance and prosperity.我们开始将目标转向真正意义上的超级智能。我们热爱我们当前的产品,但我们是为了光荣的未来而来。有了超级智能,我们可以做任何其他事情。超级智能工具可以极大地加速科学发现和创新,远远超出我们自己所能做到的,进而大大增加财富和繁荣。

This sounds like science fiction right now, and somewhat crazy to even talk about it. That’s alright—we’ve been there before and we’re OK with being there again. We’re pretty confident that in the next few years, everyone will see what we see, and that the need to act with great care, while still maximizing broad benefit and empowerment, is so important. Given the possibilities of our work, OpenAI cannot be a normal company.这现在听起来像科幻小说,甚至谈论它都有些疯狂。没关系——我们以前去过那里,我们再来一次也没问题。我们非常有信心,在未来几年内,每个人都会看到我们所看到的,并且需要非常谨慎地采取行动,同时仍然最大限度地发挥广泛的利益和赋权,这一点非常重要。鉴于我们工作的可能性,OpenAI 不可能是一家普通的公司。

How lucky and humbling it is to be able to play a role in this work.能够在这项工作中发挥作用是多么幸运和谦卑。

(Thanks to Josh Tyrangiel for sort of prompting this. I wish we had had a lot more time.)(感谢 Josh Tyrangiel 的提示。我希望我们有更多的时间。

There were a lot of people who did incredible and gigantic amounts of work to help OpenAI, and me personally, during those few days, but two people stood out from all others.在那几天里,有很多人为帮助 OpenAI,包括我个人,做了令人难以置信的大量工作,但有两个人从其他人中脱颖而出。

Ron Conway and Brian Chesky went so far above and beyond the call of duty that I’m not even sure how to describe it. I’ve of course heard stories about Ron’s ability and tenaciousness for years and I’ve spent a lot of time with Brian over the past couple of years getting a huge amount of help and advice.罗恩·康威 (Ron Conway) 和布莱恩·切斯基 (Brian Chesky) 远远超出了职责范围,我什至不知道如何描述它。当然,多年来我一直听说过关于 Ron 的能力和坚韧不拔的故事,在过去的几年里,我花了很多时间与 Brian 在一起,获得了大量的帮助和建议。

But there’s nothing quite like being in the foxhole with people to see what they can really do. I am reasonably confident OpenAI would have fallen apart without their help; they worked around the clock for days until things were done.但是,没有什么比和人们一起在散兵坑里看看他们真正能做什么更棒的了。我有理由相信,如果没有他们的帮助,OpenAI 会分崩离析;他们夜以继日地工作了好几天,直到事情完成。

Although they worked unbelievably hard, they stayed calm and had clear strategic thought and great advice throughout. They stopped me from making several mistakes and made none themselves. They used their vast networks for everything needed and were able to navigate many complex situations. And I’m sure they did a lot of things I don’t know about.尽管他们工作非常努力,但他们始终保持冷静,并且始终有清晰的战略思想和很好的建议。他们阻止我犯了几个错误,而且他们自己也没有犯。他们利用庞大的网络来满足所需的一切需求,并能够应对许多复杂的情况。而且我敢肯定他们做了很多我不知道的事情。

What I will remember most, though, is their care, compassion, and support.不过,我记得最深的是他们的关心、同情和支持。

I thought I knew what it looked like to support a founder and a company, and in some small sense I did. But I have never before seen, or even heard of, anything like what these guys did, and now I get more fully why they have the legendary status they do. They are different and both fully deserve their genuinely unique reputations, but they are similar in their remarkable ability to move mountains and help, and in their unwavering commitment in times of need. The tech industry is far better off for having both of them in it.我认为我知道支持创始人和公司是什么样子,在某种程度上我确实知道。但我以前从未见过,甚至从未听说过像这些家伙所做的那样的事情,现在我更全面地理解了他们为什么拥有他们所拥有的传奇地位。他们是不同的,都完全配得上他们真正独特的声誉,但他们在移山和帮助的非凡能力以及在需要时坚定不移的承诺方面是相似的。科技行业因为两者都参与其中而变得更好。

There are others like them; it is an amazingly special thing about our industry and does much more to make it all work than people realize. I look forward to paying it forward.还有其他像他们一样的人;这是我们行业的一个非常特别的事情,它为使这一切发挥作用所做的工作比人们意识到的要多得多。我期待着将它传递出去。

On a more personal note, thanks especially to Ollie for his support that weekend and always; he is incredible in every way and no one could ask for a better partner.就个人而言,特别感谢 Ollie 在那个周末和一直以来的支持;他在各个方面都令人难以置信,没有人能要求更好的合作伙伴。

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